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My prognostications : UPDATE

March 4th, 2008 by Scott

Today I predict:

DEMOCRATS

Obama beats Hillary in Texas by 5 points.

Obama beats Hillary in Vermont with a blowout.

Obama essentially ties Hillary in Ohio or maybe he loses very narrowly in the popular vote.

Hillary narrowly beats Obama in Rhode Island.

I am hoping for a blowout by Obama and if it happens I think I will be able to tell you why tomorrow, (hint, its the grassroots, the ground game, that’ll make it happen.).

REPUBLICANS

McCain clinches the nomination tonight.

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UPDATE

Lets review

Texas - Although I was VERY surprised he didn’t win the popular vote in the primaries, he did beat Hillary in the Caucuses, giving him a net gain of plus or minus 1 delegate in Texas. So there is s sense that he WON (or almost won) Texas. Betcha haven’t heard THAT from the Media. DELEGATE COUNT –> HILLARY 97, OBAMA 96.

Vermont - Obama beat Hillary big as I predicted. DELEGATE COUNT –> HILLARY 6, OBAMA 9.

Ohio - Hillary trounced Obama in Ohio. DELEGATE COUNT –> HILLARY 77, OBAMA 64 .

Rhode Island - Hillary beat Obama pretty good. DELEGATE COUNT –> HILLARY 13, OBAMA 8.

I used Slate’s delegate counter to get those numbers and it is an interesting tool to PROVE mathematically that Hillary cannot get the nomination unless she persuades many superdelegates to vote her way, which could cause a civil war at the convention in Denver.

As I predicted, McCain clinched the Republican nomination.

In more political news - Ron Paul suspended his candidacy today. I think he should continue running as an independent.

IMHO.WINK. NOD.

Scott

Posted in politics

One Response

  1. Brian

    Texas - Hillary 51, Obama 47
    Vermont - Obama 59, Hillary 39
    Ohio - Hillary 54, Obama 44
    RI - Hillary 58, Obama 40

    1 out of 4, sorry brother. But the delegate count still favors Obama anyway doesn’t it.

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